Prices have been steadily going up for everything but no one has been paying attention to bread prices. Recently we looked at how bread prices have changed over the years since the year 2018. On average a loaf of bread has sold for the black market equivalent of about US$0.90 over the year. Consumers can expect the price of bread to go up in the coming days or weeks thanks to two inputs that have gone up too.

First, there is an increase in wheat prices. The minimum price for wheat was recently raised by the government from around $43 000 ZWL per tonne of ordinary grade wheat to around $55 500 per tonne. For grade, A wheat, the sort that makes bread, producers can expect to receive over $66 000 per tonne.

Another key input factor is fuel which was also recently hiked by the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority. Fuel is a key factor throughout the production of bread from the transportation costs of the wheat to the cost of distributing bread from the bakery. You can expect bakers to factor in the increase in the cost of fuel in their final bread prices.

Currently, a loaf of bread sells at prices between $110 ZWL to 120 ZWL. We estimate the cost will go up to at least $130 ZWL in the coming weeks or even more. Bakers, just like most businesses in Zimbabwe tend to follow what black market rates are saying. Currently, the prevailing rate on the streets is around 170 ZWL if we use the average price of bread over the years of US$0.90 we get $153 ZWL as the target price. Expect to be paying something closer to this soon.